President Bush visited Israel this past week, the highlight of a conference to celebrate Israel’s 60th anniversary which was attended by over two thousand leaders from all over the world, and a reaffirmation of the special relationship between the US and Israel. He continued on in the Middle East, to Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. This visit took place under the shadow of military operations in the region already underway, in Beirut and in Gaza. Iran-led Hamas stepped up attacks, greeting the Bush visit with a Qassam barrage. A death recently resulted from a mortar attack on Israel, the first since the disengagement. And west Beirut was taken over in a matter of days by Syria-surrogate Hezbollah, which is under the control of Iran.
Jerusalem is watching this situation very warily as are others, fearing more internal conflict in Lebanon, or another possible Iran-coordinated move against Israel by Hamas and Hezbollah.
Iran has recently rejected the proposed package of initiatives and incentives which the EU was encouraging, saying that there are no incentives that will stop them and deny them the right to go ahead with their nuclear enrichment program. They have laid down the marker, and the countries in the Security Council plus Germany will have to decide how to react. If they pass another weak resolution, Iran will be emboldened to continue the uranium enrichment and stare down the West, knowing that the threats are empty. And if nothing will stop Iran, Israel will not be able to live with it. Given Iran’s role in the rest in the rest of the region, we can be sure that President Bush got an earful from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and others, whose fear is equal to if not greater than Israel’s. This is a critical moment. Iran is moving on Saudi Arabia, interfering in Iraq, with ambitions to reign supreme in the Gulf and have it be really Persian again. Jerusalem understands that the nuclear weapons are a provocation, a dare. Many are afraid that Iran might provoke another situation, like the one they got away with in the summer of 2006, in order to detract attention from its real misdeeds and to better position itself in the region. Hezbollah is even stronger now, with 41,000 missiles and more trained forces, even Sunni recruits. With the recent showdown in Lebanon, the removal of controls against Hezbollah, and the heat in Gaza, it is impossible not to be deeply concerned about what could be a three-sided escalation in the conflict. Israel will not this time sit by and issue a limited response.
This is a real crisis for the region. The offensive is against US allies, not only Lebanon, and that is Tehran’s battle plan. They will not start in the Gulf but, as dominating it is their aim, they will begin by weakening the opposition, pick off Beirut, and dare everyone else to go to war.
Israel sees Iran all over. Lebanon is in the hands of Syria and Iran, which is a loss for the US. Syria is under Iranian control and Gaza in the hands of Hamas. And although this has been compared to a cold war, it is in actuality a three-dimensional chess game, for huge stakes. And Tehran is playing it like a true chessmaster.
President Bush Calls Iran ‘single biggest threat’ to Mideast Peace – Ahead of a visit to the Middle East, President George W. Bush called the Iranian regime the biggest threat because of its nuclear program and its support of terrorist groups.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080512/pl_afp/mideastdiplomacyusiranlebanon_080512181305
Iran Role ‘Clearly Visible in Attack on Israel – A rocket attack from Gaza at the heart of a major Israeli city during President Bush’s visit may signify a major escalation in the confrontation between pro-American countries and Iran-Backed Islamist forces.
http://www.nysun.com/news/iran-role-clearly-visible-attack
Iran to Offer Solution to Nuke Dispute – Taking a tough stance, Ahmedinejad says nothing will stop Iran from acquiring nuclear technology. An Iranian package presented to the EU does not specifically address concerns over its nuclear ambitions.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1210668625720&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL1492175920080514
Smuggling to Iran Rife in Dangerous Gulf Waters – Smugglers pile boxes high on their speedboats, covering them with tarps before zipping off on the short but dangerous journey from Oman to Iran, through the Strait of Hormuz.
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL06243119
Criticism of OMV-Iran Deal - Two leading Jewish organizations, World Jewish Congress and B’nai B’rith, criticized the Austrian oil and gas company OMV’s planned deal with Iran on the eve of the main OMV shareholders’ meeting. The Directors of OMV were asked uncomfortable questions about the moral propriety of the deal at the meeting.
http://www.worldjewishcongress.org/news/wjcnews/wjn_archives/2008/05/wjcn_080513_rsl.html
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/205409,austrias-omv-under-fire-over-iran-deal-at-shareholders-meeting.html#
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1210668638666&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter
Lebanon Turns Into Iranian Colony – Recent events in Lebanon are a painful reminder that in a year Iran will be officially situated on Israel’s northern border should Lebanon fall into the hands of Hezbollah in the next parliamentary elections.
http://www.ynetnews.com/Ext/Comp/ArticleLayout/CdaArticlePrintPreview/1,2506,L-3541707,00.html
EU Condemns Iran Leader’s anti-Israel Remarks – Iran’s president said that Israel was “dying” and the people in the Middle East would destroy it if given the chance. The EU presidency called Ahmedinejad’s remarks against Israel “unacceptable, damaging and uncivilized.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080509/wl_mideast_afp/iranisraelpoliticseu_
080509190535&printer=1;_ylt=Ai4QupWQTWorV53nKK_BNS2bOrgF
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080514/world/international_iran_israel_ahmadinejad_dc&printer=1
Saudi Arabia Criticizes Iranian Support of Hezbollah – Signifying rising regional tensions over the conflict in Lebanon, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisel said that Iran’s relations with Arab countries would be affected by its support for Hezbollah.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080513/ap_on_re_mi_ea/saudi_lebanon&printer=1;_ylt=Ap3CyCZQCgSLaH5x28ht2VgUewgF
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/objects/pages/PrintArticleEn.jhtml?itemNo=982992
Iran Suspends Talks with US on Security in Iraq – Iran and the US have held three rounds of ambassador-level talks on security on Iraq since last May. The US has accused Iran of supporting Shiite militias in Iraq, as Iran blames the violence in Iraq on the US presence.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/05/AR2008050500326_pf.html
Spread of Nuclear Capability is Feared – At least 40 developing countries from the Persian Gulf regions to Latin America have recently approached UN officials to signal interest in starting nuclear power programs.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/11/AR2008051102212_pf.html
NATO warns More Nations could Follow Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions – The Secretary General of NATO has warned that the possibility that Syria could be building a weapons-capable nuclear reactor shows that NATO must find an answer to ballistic missile threats.
http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=12594414
Australian PM Rudd Mulls Court Action Against Ahmedinejad – PM Kevin Rudd of Australia says his government is taking legal advice on whether it will take Iran’s president to the International Court of Justice for incitement against Israel.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJVGoWthJGbQ
Russia says “SIX” could Guarantee Iran Security – The six powers negotiating with Iran to suspend its enrichment of uranium could offer Tehran a combination of security guarantees and incentives. Meanwhile, President Bush has asked Congress to review a civilian nuclear deal with Russia but lawmakers warned that it may blocked over Moscow’s links to Iran’s nuclear program. Sergey Mirinov, chairman of the upper house of Russia’s parliament, said that a nuclear Iran would be a threat to global peace and that Russia will not allow it to happen.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL1492175920080514
http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USN1342116920080513
http://www.worldjewishcongress.org/news/globalnews/gn_archives?2008/05/gn_0880515_ru.html
Kissinger: Timetable Needed to Combat Global Nuclear Threat – Former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger warned that the Iranian nuclear threat facing in Israel is in fact a global danger and existential threat to the world.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/objects/pages/PrintArticleEn.jhtml?itemNo=983408
Must Reads – Analysis and Opinion
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Reuel Marc Gerecht, “Countering Iran,” Weekly Standard, May 19, 2008 – The Iranian clerical regime is causing trouble on the West Bank and Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, the Persian Gulf and Iraq. The Hamas-Hezbollah axis is a dream come true for Tehran as they allow Iran’s rulers to be frontline combatants against Israel.
http://weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/095igqwe.asp
Fouad Ajami, “Iran Must Finally Pay a price,” Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2008 - We tell the Iranians that the military option is “on the table.” But three decades of playing cat-and-mouse with American power have emboldened Iran’s rulers, to our detriment.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120994900431266471.html
Nibras Kazimi,” Iran’s Shifting Strategy,” New York Sun, May 12, 2008 – Two countries that were dead-set against Iraq succeeding in building a democracy were Syria and Iran. These are also the two countries most responsible for fomenting political chaos in Lebanon. Will they be Lebanon’s misfortune?
http://www.nysun.com/news/iran-s-shifting-strategy
Emanuele Ottolenghi, “Human Rights and the Basis for EU Sanctions Against Iran,” Washington Institute, April 30, 2008
The EU was to follow suit after the UN passed the third round of sanctions against Iran last March. It still has not done so. What is stopping it and how can a consensus for European sanctions be found?
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/print.php?template=C05&CID=2821
Thomas L. Friedman, “ The New Cold War with Iran,” New York Times, May 14, 2008 -The real story in the Middle East today is the struggle for influence in the region, with America and its allies versus Iran, Syria and their non-state actors, Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran’s ruthless strategy has created a situation that will lead to bitter fighting should anyone try to attack its atomic facilities.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/14/opinion/14friedman.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&ref=todayspaper&pagewanted=print
Memri,”Iranian Papers on Events in Lebanon,” may 12, 2008 - Iran’s government press expressed support for Hezbollah’s recent attacks in Lebanon, and called Hezbollah “one of the regional arms of Iran (in the Middle East).” The papers said that Iran will be the victor against the US in the Middle East power struggle.
http://www.memri.org/bin/printerfriendly/pf.cgi
Greg Miller, “Political Clashes Underline Limits to Intelligence Reform,” Los Angeles Times, May 15, 2008 -The NIE report stunned the diplomatic world , touching off a political storm that has barely abated after five months.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-intel15-2008may15,0,2035328,print.story
Editorial, “Iran Pumps Iron in the Middle East, “Christian Science Monitor, May 15, 2008 - In the great Shiite-Sunni Muslim clash that cleaves the Middle East, score one for Iran’s radical Shiite theocracy. Through its proxy, Hezbollah, Iran has shown it can be the real power in Lebanon. And it took only a few days to do it.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0515/p08s01-comv.html
Irwin Cotler, “The Gathering Storm, and Beyond,” Jerusalem Post, May 14, 2008 - The incendiary hate language emanating from Ahmedinejad’s Iran- in which Israel is referred to as “filthy bacteria” and a “cancerous tumor” and Jews are characterized as “a bunch of bloodthirsty barbarians” – is on the head wind of the gathering storm confronting Israel on its 60th anniversary.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1210668636678&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter
Matthias Kuntzel, “The Tehran-Berlin Axis,” Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2008 - While Chancellor Merkel argues for tougher sanctions, Germany’s foreign policy establishment preaches accommodation. Germany is the world’s second largest exporter to Iran, and its products are crucial for Iran’s economic survival.
http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB121080192012192979.html
Ahmedinejad Sacks Interior Minister – This is the ninth cabinet change in three years, signifying his blame on his officials rather than on his failed policies.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080515/wl_mideast_afp/iranpolitics_080515100355&printer=1;_ylt=AgJD78DatH9ARsMLHSSjASubOrgF
Iran’s Central Bank Chief at Odds with Ahmedinejad – The head of Iran’s central Bank is at odds with the president over interest rates, the latest criticism of his economic policies.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/080515/world/iran_politics_economy_banking_1
Italy Sets Sights on ‘Very Firm” Approach to Iran - Italy’s new center-right government is prepared to join the US and the big European powers in taking a tough line on Iran.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0647225a-220d-11dd-a50a-000077b07658.html
US Alerts Banks To Risks of Iran Support – The Bush administration is seeking to broaden the scope of its enforcement tools to rein in Iran’s nuclear program, including greater scrutiny of global banks that my be violating US export control rules by financing prohibited trans actions.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c71cc7c4-2086-11dd-80b4-000077b07658.html
Shell and Repsol Drop Iran Gas Project – Royal Dutch Shell and Spain’s Repsol have pulled out of one of Iran’s biggest gas project, dealing a blow to Tehran’s attempts to expand energy exports.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2428c5c6-1f83-11dd-9216-000077b07658.html
Iran Looks to Tap Key Oil Field - As Iran faces a threat of tighter UN sanctions and American financial pressure over its nuclear ambitions, the country has a new drive to tap its oil riches on its own.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080511/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_oil_and_sanctions_1&printer=1;_ylt=AnjHHkg1dxBjiUmWRORDnFsUewgF
US Families Sue UBS Over Alleged Terror Links – US victims of attacks in Israel and their families are suing Swiss bank UBS for 500 million dollars, alleging it financed terrorism by doing business with Iran. The case is called a civil action for “international terrorism, wrongful death, personal injury and related torts.”
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gVapvQw5bF1K8TgCuhsKQe4gO3tw
Qatar, Iran Sign Labor Agreement – Qatar and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on the employment of Iranian labor in Qatar.
http://www.gulfinthemedia.com/index.php?id=401959&news_type=Top&lang=en
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