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Home > Publications > Iran Update > Issue 2.32 | ||
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As Iran continues to make rapid advancements on all aspects of its quest to obtain nuclear capability—the missiles, the uranium enrichment—the only area where experts seem to disagree is the timetable for Iran to achieve its goals. Although some predict that Iran will have acquired enough material to make a bomb by 2009 and others say perhaps by 2010 or 2013, these differences are really negligible. It’s safe to assume that we may not have knowledge of every development, leaving us vulnerable to the surprise of some alarming piece of news that demonstrates that, once again, we have under-estimated just how far along Iran has come in its mad pursuit. Despite the judgment the NIE made about Iran stopping the weaponization in 2003, greeted with great skepticism by many, no one should be complacent, the sense of urgency remains. Reports abound about the contagion of the proliferation disease as this becomes a growing concern—the race is on and could easily spiral out of control. (See below ‘Iran’s Nuclear Program Feeding Proliferation’ and ‘Nuclear Gold Rush’). Egypt and Russia are holding discussions, the Saudis won’t want to be left out, and a replica of a North Korean nuclear facility was removed from Syria last September by Israel. As a Middle East arms race heats up, the dates themselves are less significant while the threats to peace and stability loom larger than ever. Important right now are economic opportunities and methods that can be used to try to contain Iran, namely divestment and other tools that will prevent Iran from having the means to achieve its nuclear ambitions. Progress was certainly visible until the release of the NIE report. Forty major banks had severed relations with Iran, significantly affecting its economy. Major European and other companies in the oil and gas field had indicated that they planned to reconsider plans for large deals made with Iran and some had even announced that they would not engage in new business. Companies in Switzerland, India, Russia, France, and the Netherlands were committing to this plan of action. The NIE struck its blow which allowed the UN sanctions discussions to be delayed, and the Russians to immediately supply the fuel to Bushher. This threw a wrench into the sanctions being considered by the EU. Important players in the European oil and gas industry who had held back from going ahead with deals are now proceeding with their original plans. While a third round of UN sanctions was passed, experts remarked on their lack of ‘teeth.’ What resulted in the wake of all this is the lessening of the sense of urgency of the danger in America and in Europe, and the illusion that the threat emanating from Iran is diminished. Weak UN resolutions and the possibility that the worst option is no longer on the table embolden the Iranians to continue to flout international norms. If they are not afraid of either economic isolation or worse, they will continue to be on the march. It is crucial to make the public aware again of the severity of the threat to the United States and to Europe, and of the fact that time is not on our side. The economic pressures must be resurrected and increased many-fold. Iran should harbor no illusions about the possibility of the worst option, nor should it think that the next American administration would treat this critical issue less seriously. A group of twenty–six countries formed the Financial Action Task Force which issued a warning to financial institutions all over the world not to do business with Iran. The US Treasury issued an advisory which included, for the first time, the Central Bank of Iran on the list of institutions that bear watching. These are important steps but more are necessary. The Europeans need to be reminded that, before the release of the NIE report, they were on the verge of passing important EU sanctions, apart from the UN measures. The opportunity to do so is again presenting itself, and Germany should take the lead. Direct EU sanctions, like the US sanctions, can make a very great difference and Europe should be convinced to take this step.
In the United States, federal legislation is pending that would encourage divestment by state and local governments from companies with holdings in Iran’s petroleum and natural gas sector and would also close loopholes in existing sanctions. The passage of these pieces of legislation would greatly reduce the amount of Iran’s hard currency that it uses to fund its nuclear program and its support for terrorism world-wide. Important states have individually passed divestment measures and many more need to follow suit (see below ‘Georgia Governor Signs ‘Protecting Georgia’s Investment Act’’). These are measures that must be urged and passed now, as Iran escalates its threats beyond the Middle East and to the entire world. If we are determined to combat this rogue regime that continues to intimidate with its threats of terror and nuclear war, we must live up to our obligations to ourselves and to our children and act now. IAEA Accuses Iran of Willful Lack of Cooperation – In an unusually blunt and detailed report, the IAEA said the Iran’s suspected research in to the development of nuclear weapons remained a “matter of serious concern” and accused Iran of a willful lack of cooperation, particularly regarding questions of military use of the program. Iran Remains Key Concern as Bush Returns – President Bush tried to shore up support for his strategy if isolating Iran in meetings with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt. US allies are concerned that the Bush administration does not have an effective plan for coping. One Arab diplomat said Iran is on an unchecked “rampage.” Petraeus: Diplomacy, Not Force, With Iran – General Petraeus, President Bush’s nominee to lead US forces in the Middle East and Central Asia, searching for right mix of diplomatic, economic and military leverage to deal with Iran. Secretary Rice said that Iran must make the right choice or face more punitive measures. Pelosi: More Must Be Done to Stop Iran – Washington must assert to the rest of the world that if they want to be friends with America, they need to do more to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons said US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. Iran Says US Shows ‘Iranophobia’ Over Iraq – Iran accused Secretary of State Rice of ‘Iranophobia’ for trying to blame Tehran for Iraq’s security problems. Iran “Paid Iraq Insurgents to Kill UK Soldiers” – Iran has secretly paid Iraqi insurgents hundreds of thousands of American dollars to kill British soldiers, according to a leaked British government document. Mullen: Iran Jeopardizing Peace in Iraq – The top uniformed US military officer Diplomats: UN Probe of Iran Nukes a Failure - Iran has stymied the latest UN attempt to investigate its nuclear activities, according to anew IAEA report. Iran’s Nuclear Program Feeding Proliferation - Growing interest in atomic power among Iran’s neighbors could spiral into a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. In the 11 months that followed Iran’s start of uranium enrichment in 2006, 13 Middle Eastern countries drew up plans to build nuclear power stations. US and Israel Fear Syrian Weapons may Fall into Hands of Hezbollah and Iran – Syrian military officials arrived in Moscow to purchase advanced weapons that Israel and the US fear may fall into the hands of Iran and Hezbollah. Iran has said that it wants closer defense ties with Syria. Ahmedinejad also said that he is sure that Syria will press the struggle against Israel. Tehran Calls for International Talks on Political, Economic and Security Issues – The proposal was attached to a letter from the Iranian Foreign Minister to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. But US Defense Secretary Robert Gates rebuffed calls for diplomatic engagement with Iran, wondering if it could be productive while Ahmedinejad is in power. Egypt Eyes Iran’s Overtures with Suspicion - Iran has made a series of overtures in recent months to restore diplomatic relations with Egypt, to Egypt’s cool reaction. Ray Takeyh, “Shaping a Nuclear Iran,” Washington Post, May 19, 2008 – As six leading countries offer Iran another incentive package to stop enriching uranium, one wonders if the US and its allies are using a hopelessly defective approach. Andrew Lee Butters, “Welcome to Hezbollahstan,” Time, European Edition, May 26, 2008 - Armed by Syria and Iran, Hezbollah was in control of areas of west Beirut that were previously under the control of the Siniora government, surrounding houses of ministers and members of Parliament, in a matter of hours. Ari Shavit, “Future Imperfect,” Ha’aretz (Magazine) May 16, 2008 – Read this important interview with Major General Amos Yadlin, director of Israel’s Military Intelligence, for his assessment of the Iranian nuclear program, and the serious threat posed by its proxy, Hezbollah, to Israel and Lebanon. Dennis Ross, “How to Have Successful Negotiations,” Wall Street Journal, May 27, 2008 – Just because Ross favors negotiations with states like Iran, that does not mean that he has illusions about such talks. Editorial, “Nuclear Gold Rush,” New York Times, May 27, 2008 – There are alarming signs that this sudden enthusiasm about nuclear energy in the Middle East is driven less by concerns about climate change than by Iran’s growing nuclear proficiency. Iran Says Mosque Bombers Planned Pipeline Blast – Iran’s intelligence ministry said that a “terrorist” group responsible for a deadly mosque blast had plans to bomb oil pipelines in southern Iran. Iran to Launch Satellite Early Summer – Iran will soon launch several satellites into space, the first of which will be launched in July. It launched its first space rocket last February which it said was for research and telecommunications purposes. Ahmedinejad Exploits Religion, Critics Charge – He is increasingly drawing fire from Shiite clerics who accuse him of using religion to distract attention from his government’s failure to deliver on promises of prosperity and political freedom. ‘Tehran Avenue’—Iranian Artists and Writers Ask Courageous Questions on Website – Questions about freedom of expression are included. Iran Brushes Off Sanctions Impact on Petrochemicals – International sanctions on Iran are not hurting a bid to expand petrochemical output because investors are attracted by Iran’s vast reserves of cheap gas, say Iranian officials. Germany Tightens Truck Sales to Iran, Syria Over Rocket Fears – Germany tightened rules on the sale of heavy trucks to Iran and Syria over concern that the vehicles may be used to launch short and medium range missiles. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=aWDjsmDQA1D0&refer=germany Olmert Proposes Naval Blockade on Iran – During talks with a US congressional leader, The Israeli Prime Minister proposed that a naval blockade be imposed on Iran. US Criticizes China’s Shipping Weapons to Iran – Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Patricia McNerney told a congressional panel that China also sells weapons to Sudan, Syria and Myanmar. Prominent US Brands Remain in Sanctions-hit Iran – Products are brought in via smugglers and also by a handful of corporations who have found their way in. Governor Perdue of Georgia Signs “Protecting Georgia’s Investment Act” – The Georgia state legislature in the US passed this law which requires boards administering public retirement funds to identify all companies investing in Iran. Iranian Women’s Magazine Shut Down for Publishing on Recruitment for Suicide Operations - In late January 2008, the Media Supervision Committee of Iran’s Ministry of Culture and Islamic guidance ordered the closure of the women’s movement monthly Zanan for reporting on the regime’s recruitment of men and women for suicide bombings. Read MEMRI’s important report. Iran: Twenty Five Prisoners Hanged Since Last Month – Dissident groups in Iran are calling on human rights groups to condemn human rights abuses in Iran. Iran Judiciary: Stoning is Acceptable as Punishment – This was said by the Judiciary Authority’s human rights director who added that activists in Iran are deceivers trying to fight the regime. Kurdish Political Prisoner Dies in Jail in Iran – Family claims he was tortured. Anti-Israel Demonstration on May 16th Against “Occupation and Betrayal” Iranian Activists Criticize Restrictions on Web Sites – Iranian activists condemned a move the government to block access to several websites related to human rights. Bahai’s Accuse Iran of Religious Bias – Members of the Bahai faith accused Iran of jailing seven of their top religious leaders in an ongoing wave of persecution.
Arrest of Gaza Terrorist Trained In Iran Made Public – Israeli authorities’ investigations shed light on how Tehran in encouraging terrorism. Iran–led Hamas Demonizes the US, Slams Its Support for Israel – Hamas Minister of Culture calls the US the master of killing, crime and tyranny, comparing the American president to Hitler and Mussolini. Keep Up Resistance, Iran Tells Hamas –Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei told the visiting political leader of Hamas to keep up the resistance against Israel, and that abandoning the struggle would lead to disgrace. Lebanese Agreement Major Triumph for Hezbollah – Lebanon’s factions reached a deal after 18 months of feuding that gives Hezbollah and their allies veto power on any government decision. |